Paul Bretl | 9/11/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — Oftentimes, when a backup quarterback is in line for the start, the thought can be that we are going to see a more run-heavy and conservative game plan in an effort to limit mistakes and the quarterback being put in disadvantageous situations. However, for the Packers this Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, there very well could be the opportunity for Malik Willis to let it rip.
Now, before we go any further, I want to make clear that becoming one-dimensional without of any sort of run game presence is likely not a recipe for success against a Colts’ pass rush–a unit that recorded four sacks and 10 quarterback hits on the Houston Texans’ CJ Stroud in Week 1. As I wrote recently, establishing the run game will be a must for the Packers.
The Colts are coming off a game where they gave up 213 rushing yards to the Texans. With Houston boasting a trio of receivers that features Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, the Colts opted to use a heavy dose of light boxes to provide additional help to their secondary, a group that has its share of unknowns entering the 2024 season.
Texans’ running back Joe Mixon took advantage of this additional spacing and the blockers that were able to get to the second level with more ease by rushing for 159 yards at over 5.0 yards per carry. The Texans ended up dominating the time of possession, holding the ball for 20 minutes longer than the Colts, and ultimately kept the Colts at bay with two second-half scoring drives that lasted for a combined 14-plus minutes.
The Texans accomplished this success on the ground with a heavy usage of 11 personnel–or three wide receiver alignments. I would anticipate the Packers doing something similar in an effort to spread the Colts out as much as they can, rather than going with two tight end looks, which naturally brings bigger defensive personnel onto the field.
“I think if you look at Indy, again, another very disruptive front,” said Matt LaFleur on Monday. “I’m sure they’re gonna have a big emphasis on stopping the run after Houston ran the ball 40 times on ’em, so they’ll be working hard on that. There’s no doubt about it, which presents another challenge.”
If you’re the Colts, the added emphasis on the running game that LaFleur mentions is likely two-fold. On one hand, after their poor play in Week 1, as would be the case for any team, the focus is going to be on making sure that doesn’t happen again. On top of that, I would guess that they’re game plan will revolve around putting the game in the hands of the inexperienced Willis rather than Josh Jacobs.
This is, however, where the potential opportunity could lie for Willis and the passing game. If the pendulum swings the other direction for the Colts and we see more defenders near the line of scrimmage, that means more one-on-one matchups for the Packers receivers against a secondary where Green Bay will have the advantage matchup-wise, and it might not be particularly close.
In 2023, the Colts’ secondary–featuring several young players that battled inconsistency–ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in explosive pass plays surrendered, as well as in the bottom third of the league in passes defensed and yards per pass attempt allowed.
This season, the Colts returned almost the same exact cornerback room, with the only additions to that unit coming on Day 3 of the draft. GM Chris Ballard, who very much believes in drafting and developing, banked heavily on the internal development of second-year players JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones to elevate the play of that room. Whether that happens, along with the overall depth of that position group, is what the key questions were heading into the season.
Even with the Colts’ usage of lighter boxes against Houston, Stroud was still an efficient 24-for-32 passing, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, while Collins totaled 117 receiving yards and Diggs had two touchdowns. To make matters even more difficult for the Colts, they will now be without Brents moving forward after he was placed on IR on Tuesday, and strong safety Julian Blackmon was ruled out on Friday.
This leaves Indianapolis with either Dallis Flowers, who is coming off an Achilles injury in 2023 and was a healthy scratch in Week 1, or Sam Womack, who was claimed on waivers following cutdowns and has just over 200 career snaps, to start opposite of Jones at cornerback. At safety, they’ll either move Nick Cross down to the box and start Rodney Thomas at free safety, or elevate Ronnie Harrison from the practice squad to start at strong safety.
So, again, there’s potential opportunity for the Packers through the air in this one. But the big and obvious unknown from the Packers’ perspective is what to expect from Willis. As a former third-round pick now entering his third NFL season, Willis has just 67 career pass attempts, 61 of which came in 2022. He’s completed only 52 percent of those passes at a measly 5.2 yards per attempt with no touchdowns and three interceptions.
And, oh yeah, he’s only been in Green Bay for just over two weeks at this point in time.
“At the end day, the reality is I just got here,” said Willis about the preparation this week, “so it’s gonna be a little bit in overdrive, not as a normal week as if I’ve been here the whole time, but we’re definitely going to be taking it day by day and just doing what we can each day to prepare ourselves for Sunday.”
Despite the ups and downs up to this point in his career, what intrigued GM Brian Gutekunst to make the trade for Willis was the big step forward he took during the preseason. Over those three games with the Titans, Willis completed 74.1 percent of his 27 throws at 7.6 yards per attempt with two touchdowns to one interception, along with rushing for 101 yards at 9.2 yards per carry.
That progress Willis made this summer, and not only in the final numbers he produced but in how he acclimated himself to the new offense and the process component of playing the quarterback position, is what really stood out to Gutekunst. That growth coupled with Willis’ big arm and ability to make plays with his legs are what sparked the Packers’ pursuit.
“I thought this year in particular,” said Gutekunst “and there was a coaching staff change as well, took over the new system, but the way he kind of–his patience, the way he was going through his progressions and able to play from the pocket. When to run, when not to run–those kind of things.
“I thought, again, it’s a short sample size in the preseason, but I thought he did a nice job. Just again, I think his ability to win with his arm and with his legs was something that attracted us to him.”
The challenge for LaFleur from a game-planning perspective will be drawing up a way to take advantage of the Colts’ secondary, but doing so in a way that plays to the strengths of Willis, allowing him to play fast and confident. It goes without saying, but LaFleur shouldn’t be asking Willis to do what he’d ask of Jordan Love. We could see a lot of designed rollouts to get Willis in space and where he can make half-field reads.
As offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said recently, Willis doesn’t have to know the entire playbook to be successful, but what does need to happen is the coaching staff must understand what Willis does well, what his strengths are, and put him in a position where those qualities can be maximized.
“Well I just think every game’s a little bit different and certainly you gotta play to your players’ strengths,” said LaFleur. “So it’s our job to try to come up with whatever we come up with in order to put him in a position to be successful and whether that’s moving launch points or straight dropback, whatever it may be, we always carry play actions every week, so we’ll come up whatever we feel like is gonna give us the best possible opportunity to move the football.”
Of course, the offense is going to look different with Willis under center. However, at the end of the day, the goal when putting together a game plan is to ensure that you’re exploiting the weaknesses of the opponent.
Even without Love, that element doesn’t change, but how exactly the Packers go about doing that with Willis at quarterback will be what is different and how the Colts respond will dictate what the Packers do. Ultimately none of this matters if Willis’ throws are off, but the opportunity for him to find success through the air very well could exist this week.
“We gotta see what they do obviously,” said Stenavich. “The runs you like that you do well, too. It’s just one of those things like all right, as the game goes, you have to have your answers for whatever they’re going to try and do. I’m not gonna be stubborn and pound my head against the wall. If they’re giving us things in the pass game, we gotta be able to take it and we gotta take advantage of it. We have really good wideouts who can make a lot of plays.
“I think as Malik gets more familiar with these guys as the week progresses, he’s building that repertoire and that camaraderie with them that he can trust those guys, like he trusts those guys to go out there and make plays. I’m not gonna say we’re just gonna run the ball. We’re gonna take what the defense gives us and hopefully that’s good enough to beat them.”