Paul Bretl | 10/26/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — The run game is always going to be an integral part of the Packers offense. It can’t be forgotten about. However, each week the matchup will dictate how large of role that part of the game plays, and this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars says that the Packers should come out throwing the ball.
As a team, the Jaguars are allowing just 4.2 yards per rush this season, the seventh-lowest mark in football through seven weeks. Individually, defensive tackles Jeremiah Ledbetter and DaVon Hamilton each rank in the top-15 among their position group in PFF’s run-stop rate metric. Defensive end Arik Amrstead ranks 11th in that category, along with Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker both being in the top 30 in run defense grade.
“They’re in the top 10 against the run,” said offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich. “They’re very physical inside. They do a good job compressing the edges and keeping the ball inside. So their interior guys do a good job. Their linebackers are very aggressive and physical, I think they make a lot of plays on the ball, just filling gaps and things like that so they’re pretty physical up front.”
Against the pass, however, the Jaguars are giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt–the third-lowest mark in the NFL. The 31 explosive passing plays surrendered are also the second-most. Entering Week 8, no Jacksonville defender has more than three pass breakups and the entire defense has forced only one interception.
In terms of matchups on paper, this is where the biggest opportunity lies for the Packers’ offense.
Being able to fully exploit that Jaguars pass defense will start in the trenches with the Packers’ offensive line holding up against the Jacksonville pass rush. The aforementioned Hines-Allen and Walker both rank in the top 13 among edge rushers in pressures this season.
“From their defense, I think the first thing I see is their d-line, I think they have a really solid pass rush,” said Jordan Love on Wednesday. “Obviously their two edge guys, they’re both really good players. I think right away those guys stand out and do some good things.”
The Packers will enter this game with one of the more dynamic passing offenses this season. Of course, there is plenty of individual talent at the tight end and receiver positions, but the true strength is in the depth at the skill positions that Green Bay has.
As we saw against Arizona, where 10 different players had a target in that game, the ability to spread the ball around adds more pressure for the defense. Opponents are unable to key in on one or even two players pre-snap, almost regardless of the situation. This then forces them to defend the entire field, creating better spacing for the Packers’ offense to operate within, along with one-on-one matchups to take advantage of.
With a number of options in the passing game comes a variety of skill sets as well. Matt LaFleur can take an a la carte-like approach as he builds out the weekly game plan, mixing and matching formations and play designs that can very specifically attack an opponent’s weaknesses and create mismatches. This element can also make game-planning for this Packers offense quite difficult because they can hurt you in a number of ways.
However, a trickle-down effect of having all those options is that it can result in consistent targets. Week to week, how the workload shakes out is all really dependent upon the gameplan and how the defense defends each play, specifically who they want to take away.
Christian Watson will enter Sunday’s game with only 14 targets this season. He’s caught nine of those passes at 17.4 yards per catch with two scores. Watson’s impact in this offense goes beyond the stat sheet. As Jayden Reed has described before, defenses defend the Packers differently when his speed and downfield ability are on the field. Watson has a gravity about him. This can then open up opportunities for other pass-catchers underneath or over the middle with the attention that he draws.
Even without Watson getting regular touches, this is obviously still a very explosive offense, but he brings a different element to the equation that the other receivers don’t. And while the deep ball may be his bread and butter, it’s not as if that’s all he can do–Watson can make plays at all levels of the field.
“We do,” said Stenavich when asked about getting Watson involved more. “It’s as simple as that.”
Stenavich would add, that in part, circumstances and the situations faced in a game can impact the game-flow and targets. For example, against Houston, Stenavich noted that the Packers had 11 possessions, five of which went three-and-out and two others ended in interceptions. So it’s not as if there was an abundance of opportunities on offense in that game. But with that said, given Watson’s play-making ability, as Stenavich bluntly stated, the coaches have to do a better job of getting him involved.
“I see myself as a guy who can be successful on the deep stuff but I never see myself as a guy who should just be running deep routes,” said Watson. “I think I can be successful on short, intermediate and deep routes. So that’s definitely my mindset. But at the end of the day, it’s hard to have any complaints when you’re winning football games. But I think that’s just something that will continue to grow as I continue to go out there and play.”
Love will enter this game tied for the league lead in interceptions. His 15 touchdown passes are also the second-most as well and he’s among the league leaders in touchdown passes and yards per pass attempt–a good measurement of efficiency.
Love has the ability to make all of the throws on the field, so what the Packers don’t want to do is put the governor on his ability to utilize that strength. As LaFleur described last week, when it comes to downfield throws versus the checkdown, a lot of it has to do with the situation and point the offense is at in the game that should determine the aggressiveness on a given play.
With that said, at the end of the day, Love has a talented arm and if the matchup or coverage dictates that he should take a shot, he’s going to do that. That doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement, whether that be in accuracy at times or in the calculus that led him to that decision, but when you have a top-flight passer, you expect him to make top-flight throws, and that’s what Love is attempting to do.
“There’s not always going to be wide-open guys,” Love said. “It’s going to be tight windows. You’ve got to fit the ball in there sometimes and I’m going to keep playing. Learn and grow from the mistakes, the interceptions and just keep playing, keep moving on. That’s not going to ever limit me. I’ve got to keep going out there and being the best player I can for my team. I’m always going to be aggressive, but there’s always going to be those tight window throws.”
As good as the Packers offense has looked during stretches this season, to a degree, it still feels like that one game where it all comes together for four quarters has eluded them. In large part, that has been due to self-inflicted mistakes such as penalties, giveaways, off-target throws, and drops, often resulting in the offense falling behind the sticks and being put in predictable passing situations.
This offense has been very boom-or-bust this season, with either quick scoring drives or short possessions that end in a punt. So, entering Week 8, what is this offense that is loaded with sky-high potential chasing? Consistency. Plain old consistency.
“I think we’re in a good place,” said Love of the offense. “I think the biggest thing we’ve got to clean up as a whole is just consistency. I think when we get more consistent in hitting on every play we have an opportunity to, good things will happen. You see the explosive plays, the big-play kind of mentality we have is to go hunt those explosive plays. We’ve got a lot of playmakers who are making some big-time plays. That’s very exciting to see.
“The biggest thing for us is just finding that consistency, trying to go and not having any drives where it’s those three-and-out drives where you’re out there quickly back on the sideline. Just try and build on every little thing, keep stacking the details will be huge for us.”